Grosjean tips Renault and McLaren to jump midfield

He's leaving out Sauber, which suggests that he believes they will be at the back yet again. But I'm not so sure. They have bigger resources now, and towards the end of 2017 they improved compared to Toro Rosso and Haas. Next year they'll have a better power unit, they will probably have sorted the cooling issues they had in 2017, and since Alfa is their title sponsor they will have more help from Ferrari. I believe (and hope) that Sauber surprises and jumps Toro Rosso, Haas and Williams in the constructors championship.

Im not sure if Im ready to expect that much from McLaren. Reports from Boullier sound positive, but sadly I dont trust Boullier very much ever since he had a bout of the McLaren Brain Worm. And Im not ready to dismiss Force India as a serious upper midfield competitor, they've been very consistent, and I dont expect that to change now that they have more money to play with. Williams is more in the risk zone though.

I except RB, Ferrari and Mercedes start season close to each other. If Mercedes is doing aero package redesign and manage to get it right then Mercedes could be consistently slightly faster (specially in qualification). RB would have good race pace but they would be behind red and silver cars in qualification because Renault doesn't offer as big qualification boost as other PUs. Of course Renault can develop an improved qualification mode but Mercedes is years ahead in the boost mode development (even compared to Ferrari)

McLaren can be a surprise either way but I would except them to be about 0.3s (+-0.4s) behind RB. The largest question is how much their aero design is behind schedule because of PU change. Worst case scenario IMO is similar season to what RB had 2017. That means early races clearly losing to other top teams but then getting close to RB level around July-August.

Renault is likely to keep improving enough to fill the cap between top 4 and midfield. They have been hiring people to work on the chassis side but their development speed so far haven't showed any indication that they could make improvements like RB last season. Realistic optimistic prediction would be that Renault can fight wit McLaren if McLaren is clearly behind in development leaving both teams about 0.7-1s behind pole. Pessimistic prediction would be a bit more behind pole battling with Force India in the begin of season but later on gaining an advantage because of larger budget.

If force India can keep their key engineers I expect them keep designing a great car for their budget. That would likely put them to be 6th fastest team with a small cap to Renault. I don't think that they have budget to compete. I hope they can slightly reduce that cap to the pole because it will be very similar regulations for next season making it much harder for top teams to improve performance. Budget difference is still huge making it unlikely that Force India can make it to top 5 in 2018.

STR is all about how Honda manages with performance and reliability. Even with Honda PU maybe allowing slightly better aero design but I still expect about 0.7-1.4s slower aero package than McLaren had this year. While Honda has been catching other Engines about 0.05s/month. That would mean engine deficit would still be about 0.5-1.2s to Force India in the begin of season.

Rumors talked about Williams making a major aero design changes for next season. To me it sounds like Williams is pretty much wild card for the early season. If they get a new aero package right it can provide huge advantages to some tracks where it works much better than their previous package. But redesign always carries a risk that all details aren't working on time making it possible that Williams can't challenge Force India in the early season.

Haas is a bit different team because they depend more on their technical partners. I wish they can keep impressive performance for a low budget. Maybe actually developer car until end of season which could allow them fight Williams and Force India for 6th place.

Sauber is a wild card too. I don't think they have enough people to get out of the "bottom" on their own. Of course bottom can be next year a bit father from pole with STR losing performance and maybe dropping behind Sauber. Sauber have deepened their relation with Ferrari/Fiat which may or may not include technical partnership. If there is increased Technical support from Ferrari then they would be likely in a similar position as Haas. Of course just having a fresh Ferrari PU will make them much stronger than they were in the end of season with 2016 PUs.

Short version of early season team order:
1st-3rd: Mercedes, Ferrari and RB
4th McLaren
5th Renault
6th-8th Force India, Williams and Haas
9th Sauber
10th Toro Rosso