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Suprematie Verstappen ramp voor gokkers

  • Gepubliceerd op 22 okt 2023 19:45
  • 0
  • Door: Danny Sosef

Max Verstappen lijkt ook dit jaar weer onbedreigd af te stevenen op de wereldtitel. Het zou al weer zijn derde op rij zijn. Het zorgt bij veel vreugde en trots bij de Nederlandse Formule 1 liefhebbers. Maar tot afgrijzen bij de Formule 1 gokkers.

Aan de odds, ook wel quoteringen genoemd, van Nederlandse bookmakers kun je aflezen hoe waarschijnlijk een bepaalde uitkomst van een race of kampioenschap is. Hoe hoger de odds, hoe hoger de mogelijke winst van een gokker. De bookmakers willen natuurlijk zo min mogelijk geld verliezen en dus maken ze gebruik van heel veel data om te berekenen wat de kans op een bepaalde uitkomst is. Hoe waarschijnlijker de uitkomst, hoe lager de odds.

En daar zit voor de Nederlandse gokkers het probleem. Omdat Max Verstappen de Formule 1 domineert, worden de odds voor zijn winst in een Grand Prix of voor het veroveren van de wereldtitel steeds lager. Wie op dit moment wilt wedden op Max Verstappen ontvangt in het gunstigste geval nog maar drie cent winst voor elke ingezette euro. Zet een gokker dus € 10 in op een wereldtitel van Max, dan ontvangt hij slechts dertig cent winst. Gokken op winst in een grand prix levert nog iets meer op, maar met gemiddelde odds van 1.35 is dit ook bijna het risico niet waard.

Vanuit de Formule 1 klinken er steeds vaker geluiden dat de suprematie van Verstappen de sport saai maakt. Dezelfde geluiden hoor je nu ook vanuit de gokwereld. "Gokkers vinden het het leukst om te wedden op wedstrijden die alle kanten op kunnen gaan. Dat zorgt namelijk voor hogere winsten. In de Formule 1 staat de winnaar nu bijna elke keer al vast", zegt Noah Leermans. Hij is hoofdredacteur van bookmaker vergelijkingssite Mybookmakers.nl, waar onder andere alles rondom het wedden op formule 1 onder de loep wordt genomen. "We ontvangen van de bookmakers geen data over het gokgedrag, maar het zou mij niet verbazen als het aantal geplaatste Formule 1 weddenschappen dit jaar aanzienlijk lager ligt. Zeker naarmate het seizoen vordert en Max zijn dominatie doorzet", aldus Leermans.

Toch ziet de bookmaker expert nog genoeg kansen voor sportgokkers. "Wedden op de winnaar is nog altijd de populairste weddenschap, maar er zijn meer mogelijkheden. Zo kun je bij de meeste Nederlandse wedkantoren bijvoorbeeld ook inzetten op de tijdsmarge van de winnaar in de kwalificatie of wie het snelste rondje zal neerzetten", zegt Leermans. "Het is te verwachten dat Formule 1 gokkers steeds vaker naar dit soort weddenschappen gaan kijken."

De wedkantoren zijn dus al overtuigt van een wereldtitel van Verstappen. Maar er staan nog flink wat races op het programma. Of ze het dus ook bij het juiste eind hebben, dat blijft een gokje.

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